Trade simulator
Enter a trade you are considering. See the spread of outcomes its stop and target imply, using the market's own recent moves.
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of 2,000 runs built from this market's last 60 days hit your target before your stop
What it is not: It is not a forecast, not the chance that your trade works, and not advice. Nothing here knows what happens next.
What the number is
The share of 2,000 runs, each built by shuffling this market's own 15-minute moves from the last 60 days, that hit your target before your stop. The recent average drift is removed first, so no direction is assumed. It shows where your stop and target sit against the way this market has been moving.
Where this is weakest
- Mostly set by your own distances. Because no direction is assumed, the number depends above all on how far your target is compared with your stop: a target twice as far away as the stop comes out near one in three in almost any market, an even split near half. This market's own moves shift it from there and set how long it takes.
- No trading costs. Spread, slippage, commission and overnight charges are left out. A stop placed close to the spread is hit far more often in real trading than here.
- Only the last 60 days. A calmer or wilder period ahead changes the answer. News and weekend gaps appear only as often as they did in those days.
- Order inside 15 minutes is unknown. When one bar touches both your stop and your target, the stop is counted.
- Reshuffled in blocks of about a day. That keeps each day's rhythm but breaks longer trends and shifts in volatility.
- Filled exactly at your entry. The paths start at your entry, wherever the market is now.
- One broker's prices. The moves come from one broker's prices for this market; yours may differ slightly.
- Twenty trading days at most. Paths that touch neither level by then are counted as unresolved.
- The trend is removed on purpose. If the market has been rising, this neither assumes it keeps rising nor that it turns.